With independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. in the race, many who have taken a look at his candidacy have noted that he seems to believe he can actually win. However, considering no independent candidate has ever been president since George Washington, many are wondering: can he win, or is he just a spoiler?
According to a poll from December 2023, nearly 70% of voters are not enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden rematch. Furthermore, another poll from February 2024 shows that 62% of voters believe that the country needs another choice besides President Donald Trump Trump or President Joe Biden. This also comes as 56% of Americans say that they would consider voting for a moderate independent candidate, and nearly half of Americans identify as independent from either main political party. With Kennedy winning among independent voters, having a 52% favorability rating, and having 34% of voters saying they could see themselves voting for him, it can become easier to see that Kennedy could have a pathway to winning. After all, Trump and Biden are the two most unpopular front-runners for president in United States history, making the time potentially ripe for Americans to express that they have had enough at the voting booth.
So, why aren’t voters saying when polled that they are going to vote for Kennedy? Part of the reason could be because about 20% of voters either don’t know who he is or don’t have an opinion of him. This is part of the reason why some think Biden and Trump seem to not want to debate Kennedy, as doing so would give him exposure to tens of millions of people in the American public. Another speculation was made by Kennedy himself at a rally on April 28 in New York when he referenced a poll his campaign paid for that was conducted by Zogby. “When it’s head-to-head just me against President Biden, I beat him in a landslide. And when I run… just me against President Trump head-to-head, I beat him. And President Biden can’t beat him.” He continued, saying, “So, why am I behind? The reason I’m behind… is because so many Americans are voting out of fear.”
According to the poll by Zogby, Kennedy is correct. In a head-to-head match between him and President Biden, Kennedy wins 367 to 171 electoral votes. In a head-to-head match between him and President Trump, Kennedy wins narrowly, 270 to 268 electoral votes. However, in a head-to-head match between Trump and Biden, Trump beats Biden 294 to 244 with Kennedy out of the race. With Kennedy in the race, the poll shows that Trump would still win the election if it were held today, though Biden picks up the states of Virginia and Maine as well.
This poll also shows that Kennedy does not meet the requirements to be considered a spoiler, as the definition of a spoiler is “having little or no chance of winning but capable of depriving a rival of success.”
This Zogby poll has been considered reliable because it polled over 26,000 respondents, having a margin of error of 0.6%, and conducted results state-by-state. This is compared to most presidential polls, where they usually have between 1,000 and 4,000 respondents and do not conduct results state-by-state. Having poll results for what an election would look like state-by-state is also important for reliability considering the United States uses an electoral college system, not a national popular vote, to determine the winner.
So, what is Robert Kennedy Jr.’s path to victory according to this poll?
While Kennedy’s campaign has not released the results of a three-way race, his campaign did release the favorability ratings of each of the viable presidential candidates in every state.
Considering their favorability ratings in each state, the map below showcases Robert Kennedy Jr.’s potential electoral path to victory. This does not suggest that he would win every one of these states; rather, it suggests that these are the states he has a pathway to winning considering such as of current, as this poll was conducted April 13 through April 24.
In blue are the states that President Biden would win, in red are the states that President Trump would win, and in gold are the states that the poll shows Robert Kennedy Jr. has a path to winning.
Not all of these states are ones that Kennedy wins in favorability outright, though that is the case in the majority of these states. Upon looking at the candidates’ favorability ratings, if Robert Kennedy Jr. was within 2% of having the highest favorability rating, that was still considered a “path to victory” during the creation of this map.
These results are purely based on the candidates’ favorability ratings, not their net favorability ratings. This is because using net favorability would have heavily conflated results for Kennedy, as well as the other two candidates, as many respondents replied that they did not have an opinion of Kennedy. This means that the favorability ratings used for the creation of this map were based on those who said they had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of the candidates.
Despite the fact that nationally one out of five respondents said they didn’t know who Kennedy was or didn’t have an opinion of him, he still enjoys favorability ratings high enough that this then gives him a pathway to 317 electoral votes as of current.
Considering all the polling data released by the Kennedy campaign, this would be Robert Kennedy Jr.’s potential path to victory at this point in time. At a time when the vast majority of the American public does not want to see a rematch between President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, the data points to this being the most likely time for an independent candidate to win in decades.
Mr. Kennedy also said at the New York rally on April 28, “My path to victory is to convince Americans to vote not out of fear.” A large part of his strategy to do this seems to revolve around getting on the presidential debate stage.
Although he may meet the criteria that CNN has laid out for the June 27 debate the network plans on hosting by its deadline, one of President Biden’s conditions for a debate was that no candidates other than himself and Trump were to be included. Trump, meanwhile, has said publicly that he doesn’t care if Kennedy is on the debate stage. However, a spokesperson for his campaign has said that CNN “assured” his campaign that Kennedy will not be there. Kennedy has said he may take legal action if he qualifies and is still excluded, arguing that it would be a violation of the law.
Though it appears he is correct, it remains to be seen whether President Biden will withdraw if Kennedy is invited to the debate. Furthermore, it also remains to be seen if President Trump will withdraw if Kennedy is invited, or if he will go to only debate Kennedy if Biden withdraws.
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